BoC Governor Poloz' speech in focus – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities provided a brief insight over Thursday's major event, a scheduled speech by the BoC Governor Poloz.

• “Amid a fairly-quiet data release schedule, today's "fireside chat" with Governor Poloz is our main focus for the North American session. USDCAD lurched higher after investors lurched on to the more dovish elements of a speech this week from Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. With Canada's CPI still running at a decent clip, this move looks vulnerable to a pullback below the 200dma if Poloz fails to follow up with a dovish lean of his own.
• Governor Poloz will hold a fireside chat on "Economic change and the path forward" at 8:45 ET. However, a lack of media presence presents a challenge for markets; there will be no opening statement or press conference, and the Bank will not carry a webcast of the event. Given the Bank's recent messaging, we expect the focus will remain on trade-offs between monetary easing and financial vulnerabilities, although it will be difficult to pick up any nuance from the Governor's remarks if all we see are headlines.
• On the data front, we will get ADP employment for October at 8:30 which will be looked to for confirmation of the soft LFS numbers. The October LFS showed 2.4k jobs lost, although stripping out self-employed workers (which are not captured by ADP) showed a more favourable 26k increase in public & private employment.”