Will UK's PM fall at the final hurdle? – TDS

Ned Rumpeltin, the European Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, notes the UK's political landscape remains fluid ahead of Thursday's crucial election.

• “Sterling has given up some of its recent gains overnight after a key poll showed the Conservative's lead was starting to shrink. A hung Parliament would mean the UK's political chaos would continue, but even a diminished Tory majority means a still-cloudy future. We think cable would have plenty of room to fall if the Conservatives stumble at the ballot box.
• The post-poll dip back below 1.32 overnight suggests we have edged back from that a bit. Despite this, however, we think there is still quite a bit of scope for disappointment if the market's primary expectation is disappointed.
• As a result, sterling's recent gains leave it vulnerable to a meaningful correction if anything less than a full Tory sweep is the result this week. If we do get an unstable Conservative majority, we would not be surprised to see cable push lower to test the 1.2985/1.3015 breakout zone. This may not provide sufficient support, however. We would not be surprised to see a deeper correction toward 1.2880 ahead of 1.2820/25 by early next week. Beyond this, sterling may settle down and establish new trading ranges into year-end with leadership reverting to the USD leg overall.”