Japan business mood gloomiest in nearly 7 years as trade war bites

Japanese big manufacturers’ business mood sank to a near seven year low in the fourth quarter, a closely watched central bank survey showed, as the U.S.-China trade war and soft global demand weighed on the export-reliant economy.

Companies expect conditions to remain unchanged or even worsen three months ahead, the Bank of Japan’s “tankan” quarterly survey showed, suggesting that the fallout from the trade conflict could hurt broader sectors of the economy.

But there were some bright signs. Non-manufacturers’ sentiment appeared to weather the hit from October’s sales tax hike with companies maintaining robust capital expenditure plans, reinforcing market expectations the BOJ will hold off on expanding stimulus at next week’s rate review.

The headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment stood at 0 in December, down from 5 in September and worse than a median market forecast of 2. It marked the fourth straight quarter of decline and hit the lowest reading since March 2013. Underscoring the pain from the trade war, an index gauging big automakers’ sentiment turned negative for the first time in more than three years.

A sales tax hike that rolled out in October weighed on Japan’s service sector, with the index for big non-manufacturers sliding to 20 from 21 in September. But the reading exceeded a estimate of 16.