BoE expected to remain fairly cautious this week - ING

Analysts at ING note the Bank of England (BoE) has stuck to a fairly cautious mantra over recent meetings as the economic sentiment and activity deteriorated as the Brexit uncertainty intensified through the autumn.

"But in the wake of last week’s landslide election victory for the Conservative Party, markets will be on the lookout for hints that the committee is turning more hawkish.

After all, the Bank’s November projections predicted that some excess demand would emerge in 2021/22 – and those numbers accounted for the fact that the UK would leave the EU smoothly in January.

Theoretically at least, that implies that rates may need to rise to a higher level than markets anticipate over coming months.

In reality, we think that’s unlikely – at least in the first half of 2020. We are wary that the election result may not bring about a significant, or at least imminent, recovery in investment and hiring appetite – more on our thinking on that below.

We expect the Bank to retain a relatively cautious bias this week. The two committee members that voted for easing at the last meeting are likely to do so again, although we’re not expecting this consensus to build. Barring a significant deterioration in either the global backdrop or jobs market, we aren’t expecting rate cuts in 2020."