ECB Economic Bulletin: survey-based indicators suggest that stabilisation of global activity has continued in Q4

Global real GDP growth (excluding the euro area) weakened during the first half of 2019, but signs of stabilisation started to emerge towards the end of the year.

Since the Governing Council meeting in September 2019 euro area long-term risk-free rates have increased and the forward curve of the euro overnight index average (EONIA) has shifted upwards, with markets currently expecting no further cut in the deposit facility rate.

Euro area real GDP growth was confirmed at 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2019, unchanged from the previous quarter

This assessment is broadly reflected in the December 2019 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

According to Eurostat's flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation increased from 0.7% in October 2019 to 1.0% in November, reflecting mainly higher services and food price inflation.

This assessment is also broadly reflected in the December 2019 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 1.2% in 2019, 1.1% in 2020, 1.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022.

In October 2019 the annual growth of broad money remained robust, while lending to the private sector continued its gradual recovery.

The aggregate fiscal stance for the euro area is expected to remain mildly expansionary in 2020, thus providing support to economic activity.

While global growth (excluding the euro area) weakened during the first half of the year, signs of stabilisation started to emerge towards the year-end.

Survey-based indicators suggest that the stabilisation of global activity has continued in the fourth quarter

Global financial conditions have eased further.

Looking ahead, only a mild pick-up in global growth is projected, reflecting a deceleration of growth in advanced economies and China, which is offset by a moderate recovery in EMEs.

Economic activity is expected to remain resilient in the United States in the near term, and to decelerate in the medium term.

In China, economic activity remains on a gradually slowing trajectory.

Global trade has declined significantly in the course of 2019 amid recurring escalations of trade tensions and slowing industrial activity.

Recent developments in the US trade policy stance provide mixed signals about a potential dissipation of trade tensions.

Global imports are projected to increase gradually over the medium term, and to expand at a more subdued pace than global activity.

The balance of risks to global activity remains tilted to the downside, but risks have become somewhat less pronounced.