Markets: What is most important in the week ahead? – Nordea

Analysts at Nordea Markets suggest that next week we will get a fresh test of whether uncertainty in survey measures will abate now that trade and Brexit risks have faded.

• "The conference board CEO survey is published on Tuesday. This survey has never been at levels as bad as in Q3 2019 without a subsequent recession. Let's see whether this was a geopolitically-driven false flag. One should expect a BIG rebound in this survey, if geopolitical uncertainty was the key driver behind the weak survey. We suspect that tight financial conditions during 2018 are also part of the reason.
• Measures like NFIP job openings, employment legs of PMIs and overtime hours worked have warned of weaker non-farm-payrolls (Friday) a couple of months in a row. This is do or die time for the slowdown 2.0 narrative. The labour market should show some tentative weak signs during Q1 2020, if the usual lead/lag patterns are to be trusted. We still lean this way.
• We will also continue to watch out for signals of increasing inflation pressures next week in prices paid in PMI surveys and from the Euro area (risks are on the upside given data released today) on Tuesday. Gold prices have started to trade as if a small wave of inflation will flood markets during H1 2020. The otherwise strong correlation between gold prices and the amount of negative-yielding debt has broken down. Is this a sign that markets expect late-cyclical inflation pressures?
• Inflationary pressures will peak during H1 2020 judging from the simple relationship between PMI levels and core inflation. ISM leads US core inflation by roughly 1.5 years.
• The calendar in Scandinavia is relatively light next week, but it is worthwhile keeping an eye on the weak Swedish service PMI on Tuesday as well as the Riksbank minutes on Wednesday. On Friday, we will get the monthly inflation print from Norway."