Global growth to remain at 10-year low in 2020 - NIESR

Latest world economy analysis from National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggesting that global growth is set to remain at 10-year low in 2020:

• Global economic growth slowed again last year as increases in tariffs and uncertainty about future tariff impositions and their implications for production activity continued to have negative effects on industrial production, especially in the advanced economies, and global trade.

• With a weaker global economic outlook and continued low inflation, several central banks loosened monetary policy last year and these actions should provide some tailwinds to support global growth this year and into next.

• Despite the stalling activity in global industrial production and trade, the pace of service sector activity has remained robust.

• Our forecasts for global GDP growth this year of 3 per cent, effectively the same as last year, and 3¼ per cent next year are unchanged on three months ago. We expect only a very gradual pick-up in activity as the year progresses, with headwinds to growth and fragility remaining a feature of the global economy.

• After two years during which global economic growth has slowed from a cyclical peak in 2017 to its slowest rate since 2009, we expect that the growth slowdown will halt this year. We project global GDP growth of 3 per cent this year and 3¼ per cent next, with these forecasts unchanged from those of three months ago.