International Energy Agency (IEA) cuts 2020 oil demand growth forecast on coronavirus risks

Global oil demand has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) and the widespread shutdown of China's economy.

Demand is now expected to fall by 435 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q20, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years.

We have cut our 2020 growth forecast by 365 kb/d to 825 kb/d, the lowest since 2011.

Lower-than-expected consumption in the OECD trimmed 2019 growth to 885 kb/d.

The coronavirus outbreak has also led us to revise down the outlook for global refinery runs.

Chinese crude throughputs for 1Q20 have been cut by 1.1 mb/d and are now expected to contract by 0.5 mb/d year-on-year. As a result, global runs are forecast to expand by just 0.7 mb/d in 2020.

Global oil supply slumped by 0.8 mb/d in January to 100.5 mb/d.

A blockade in Libya slashed production and the UAE saw output fall by 0.3 mb/d.

World oil output was largely unchanged on a year ago as lower supply from OPEC was offset by a 2.1 mb/d increase in non-OPEC production.

The call on OPEC crude plunges to 27.2 mb/d in 1Q20, which is 1.7 mb/d below the group's January production of 28.86 mb/d.

OECD industry stocks held largely steady in December at 2 915 mb as a build in product inventories more than offset lower crude holdings. Total oil stocks stood 26.4 mb above the five-year average and covered 61 days of forward demand.

Preliminary data for January show inventories building in the US and Japan while falling in Europe.