AUD: Not all negatives in the price - ING

Analysts at ING note that the Australian dollar has led losses within the G10 space over the past few days and AUD/USD has dropped by more than 4% in the spot market since the Covid-19 outbreak became public. 

"While this may appear like a sizable loss for the currency, we think it has actually been relatively contained. A hawkish tone by the RBA in the February policy statement and broadly supportive data flow have likely curbed the currency's losses. The above-mentioned negative implications of the Covid-19 outbreak on the Australian economy and the additional downside risks stemming from the extended bushfire emergency would have probably warranted AUD/USD around the 0.64 area."

"Looking ahead, how much the virus will eventually spread (or, has spread) among developed economies will determine the short-term fate for AUD, but looking at the other drivers, we note that the AUD may not find much additional support. As we have highlighted above, it will be difficult for the RBA to deliver another hawkish surprise in light of the Covid-19 outbreak, which has spread to such an extent that the number of cases outside of China now exceeds those inside the country. On the domestic side, the employment picture has remained quite mixed."