U.S. Leading Economic Index rises in-line with economists' forecast in February

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in February to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a downwardly revised 0.7 percent m-o-m advance in January (originally a 0.8 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast a gain of 0.1 percent m-o-m.

However, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, noted that a slight increase in U.S. LEI in February doesn't reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which began to hit the U.S. economy in full by early March. "The slight gain in February came only from half of the LEI components. In particular, the recovery in manufacturing, which looked promising until February, will now be short-lived because of the disruption in global supply chains and falling demand," he added. "Declines in stock prices, consumers' outlook on economic conditions, manufacturing new orders, average workweek in manufacturing, and rising unemployment claims will begin to negatively impact the economy. As a result, the economy may already be entering into a period of contraction."

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in February to 107.6, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in January. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent m-o-m in February to 109.1, following no change in January.