Global oil cuts seen falling short and crashing prices - ING Groep

Bloomberg reports that according to ING Groep NV, oil is set to tumble back toward $20 a barrel as global producers will likely fall short of targeted cuts this week, leaving a supply overhang that will threaten to overwhelm global storage.

Oil giants including Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely only going to be able to cobble together a global agreement to curb 6 million to 7 million barrels a day of supplies, said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities strategy. That's more than triple what OPEC+ was cutting at the start of this year but is short of the 10 million barrels a day or more that U.S. President Donald Trump proposed last week.

It's also well shy of the loss in demand of about 15 million barrels a day in the second quarter caused by government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus, Patterson said. Brent crude, which has already plunged 50% this year, will crater further as storage is maxed out.

ING sees Brent crude averaging $20 a barrel in the second quarter before rebounding to $45 in the fourth quarter.

Patterson doesn't think the U.S. will be given a direct mandate to cut a specific volume because of its antitrust laws, but the country will still contribute output declines as drillers halt activity because of low prices. Russia wants the U.S. to do more than an organic drop in production, but will ultimately accept it as part of a larger agreement, he said.