Canada: More hard data to bring coronavirus impact into focus - RBC

According to ActionForex, analysts at RBC Financial Group note that this week gave us some hard data on the impact of coronavirus containment measures.

"Canada's employment numbers were as bad as feared, with 1 million people losing their jobs through mid-March and economy-wide hours worked falling by 15%. Conditions deteriorated toward the end of the month and in early-April, and more than 5 million Canadians have reportedly filed for employment insurance or other benefits (those payments have already started to roll out)."

"March's dramatic job losses tee up for a significant decline in economic activity in the current quarter - our latest forecasts look for Canada's Q2 GDP to fall by more than 30% at an annualized rate. That sharp slowdown will start to make its way into next week's data. While February's manufacturing report will already be out of date when it's released, March's home resales will show some coronavirus effects with local board releases indicating sales activity slowed sharply in the second half of the month. Wednesday's Bank of Canada meeting isn't likely to deliver any policy changes - the BoC was very active in March, cutting its policy rate to the effective lower bound and launching a new QE program (among other liquidity-supplying measures)."

"We'll also be keeping an eye on COVID-19 cases, which just surpassed the 1.5 million mark globally, having increased 10% per day on average over the past week. Hard-hit Italy's containment measures continue to bear fruit, while the US case trajectory remains troubling. Within Canada, British Columbia is having some success in bending the curve and Alberta's numbers are only slightly worse on a population-adjusted basis. Quebec stands out as having the worst outbreak by far, with the province's early March break (more recreation and traveling before containment measures were increased) being at least partly to blame."