JPMorgan Asset says it’s way too soon for negative U.S. rates

Bloomberg reports that traders are getting ahead of themselves pricing in negative U.S. rates next year, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

"Three, four years down the line if the economy is still in a very weak state, then perhaps the Federal Reserve could consider negative rates," said Seamus Mac Gorain, head of global rates in London. "For now, they're much more focused on the balance sheet, on their tools rather than on negative rates."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have pushed back against the need for negative rates, questioning its usefulness as investors weighed the possibility. Futures markets are pricing for that to happen, with contracts on Fed funds rate showing bets for the move in the second quarter of 2021.

"They've seen the cost of negative rates now at these levels, in terms of the impact on the banking sector," JPMorgan Asset's Mac Gorain said. "On the whole, the shift is a little bit away from negative rates."

While it "makes sense" to price the tail risk of negative rates, most central bank signals suggest the opposite may be true for now, he said. The European Central Bank had "several opportunities to cut rates again and they haven't done it," and the same could be said of the Bank of Japan, he added.