U.S. Leading Economic Index drops less than forecast in April

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell 4.4 percent m-o-m in April to 98.8 (2016 = 100), following a downwardly revised 7.4 percent m-o-m plunge in March (originally a 6.7 percent m-o-m decline).

Economists had forecast a drop of 5.5 percent m-o-m.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, noted: that the US LEI continued on a downward trajectory in April, after posting the largest decline in its 60-year history in March. “The erosion has been very widespread, except for stock prices and the interest rate spread which partially reflect the rapid and large response of the Federal Reserve to offset the pandemic’s impact and support financial conditions. he added.

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. declined 8.9 percent m-o-m in April to 96.6, following a 1.5 percent m-o-m drop in March. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. increased 4.1 percent m-o-m in April to 115.3, following a 1.7 percent m-o-m advance in March.

“Business conditions may recover for some sectors and industries over the next few months,” suggested Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, “But, the breadth and depth of the decline in the LEI suggests that an imminent re-opening of some sectors does not imply a fast rebound for the economy at large.”