China’s employment outlook expected to weaken in third quarter

Bloomberg reports that the employment outlook in China will deteriorate in the third quarter because of the disruption to global business caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, a private survey showed.

The outlook for net employment will be weaker next quarter than now, according to a survey by ManpowerGroup Inc., the global labor supply company. The index will weaken to 3% in the July-September period from this quarter’s 6%. It was 8% in the same period last year.

A positive number suggests employers will increase hiring from the current quarter.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges in the job market due to its impact on business activities amid the downward pressure exerted by the micro-economy,” the company said in a press release Tuesday. “The optimistic outlook is that China has been recovering more steadily than other countries from the pandemic.”

The transportation and utilities sectors are forecast to have the strongest hiring as China speeds up the construction of traditional infrastructure including expressways and waterway transport projects, as well as technology-focused new infrastructure such as 5G networks and big data centers, according to the report. However, the outlook for all sectors is weaker than in both the current three-month period and the same period last year.

Large companies will expand payrolls in the next three months while micro-sized firms are expected to cut their workforce. Despite the worsening situation, China’s labor market outlook remains relatively strong globally, lagging behind only Japan and India, and at the same level as the U.S. and Taiwan, the survey noted.

The survey results are based on a sample of 4,201 employers in China.