U.S. Leading Economic Index rises more than forecast in May

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 2.8 percent m-o-m in May to 99.8 (2016 = 100), following a revised 6.1 percent m-o-m plunge in April (originally a 4.4 percent m-o-m decline). That was the first increase in the LEI since January.

Economists had forecast a gain of 2.3 percent m-o-m.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, noted that the U.S. LEI showed a partial recovery in May from its sharp decline over the previous three months, as economic activity began to pick up again. “The relative improvement in unemployment insurance claims is responsible for about two-thirds of the gain in the index. The improvements in labor markets, housing permits, and stock prices also buoyed the LEI, but new orders in manufacturing, consumers’ outlook on the economy, and the Leading Credit Index still point to weak economic conditions. The breadth and depth of the decline in the LEI between February and April suggest the economy at large will remain in recession territory in the near term,” he said.

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. went up 1.1 percent m-o-m in May to 95.3, following a 10.4 percent m-o-m tumble in April. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. decreased 1.9 percent m-o-m in May to 111.4, following a 1.7 percent m-o-m advance in April.