IMF sees 2020 global growth at -4.9% this year, down from -3.0% in April forecast

• 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4% compared to +5.8% in April

In its June World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF notes:

• COVID-19 pandemic has had more negative impact on activity in H1 2020 than anticipated, and recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast
• Growth in advanced economy group is projected at –8.0 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points lower than in April forecast
• Growth in the group of emerging market and developing economies is forecast at –3.0 percent in 2020, 2 percentage points below the April forecast
• In China, where  recovery from the sharp contraction in Q1 is underway, growth is projected at 1.0 percent in 2020
• Second outbreak could lead to a decrease in world output of about 4.9 percent in 2021, relative to the baseline
• Downside risks, however, remain significant
• More prolonged decline in activity could lead to further scarring, including from wider firm closures, as surviving firms hesitate to hire jobseekers after extended unemployment spells, and as unemployed workers leave labor force entirely
• Further effective policy actions can help slow the deterioration and set the stage for  speedier recovery that benefits all in society across income spectrum and skills distribution
• Development of a safe, effective vaccine would lift sentiment and could improve growth outcomes in 2021