U.S.: Spending picks up as income falls in May - TD Bank Financial Group

According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group note that personal income fell in May, declining by 4.2% month-on-month, as the effects of one-time checks provided by the CARES Act largely wore off last month. 

"Despite the decline in income, spending picked up in May, rising by 8.2% month-on-month, slightly below consensus expectations for 9.0%. Goods expenditure drove the pick-up, rebounding by 14.1% on the month. Spending on durable goods was especially strong, specifically that on motor vehicles and parts as well as recreational good and vehicles. Services spending also rose, increasing by 5.4% in May. The largest contributors in this category were health care, food services and accommodation. Even with the increase in May, spending still remains 11% lower than the February level."

"Spending staged a comeback in May as states reopened their economies, unleashing pent-up consumer demand. After being deprived of non-essential goods and services in April, consumers rushed to spend on these areas last month."

"The return of spending would not have been possible without the income support programs provided by the CARES Act. Yes, income fell in May, but that was only after an extraordinary increase in April. Moreover, more than twenty million people are receiving an additional $600 per week as part of the expanded unemployment insurance program. As a result, most households that have experienced job losses are receiving more cash from CARES Act than they would be if they were still working. This injection of income played an important role in the spending rebound last month."

"The spending outlook appears more precarious in the coming months. The expanded unemployment benefits are set to expire at the end of July, which could lead to an even greater decline in household income. If this happens, consumers will most likely reduce spending and prolong the economic downturn."