European Central Bank could announce policy tweaks after shock inflation data

CNBC reports that market watchers believe the European Central Bank (ECB) could fine-tune its policies today, and may even follow the Federal Reserve by revising its inflation targets in the longer term.

The ECB’s Governing Council convenes on Thursday to discuss its monetary policy stance and its assessment of the euro zone economy. Since its last meeting, economic data has shown signs of a slowing of the recovery, the euro has appreciated and core inflation slumped to a new record low in August. 

While the majority of analysts don’t expect much policy action and think the ECB will wait until December, there is a remote chance of tweaks to its guidance this week, backed by new staff projections.

“In response to a downward revision of the medium-term inflation outlook, we expect the ECB to tweak its guidance at the Governing Council tomorrow,” said Florian Heise of Berenberg in a research note 

“The ECB may stress more than before that the 1.35 trillion euro envelope of the PEPP (the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase program) is a target not a ceiling.”

“The appreciation of the euro is starting to become a headache for the ECB,” said Dirk Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis. 

“While it has not reached a point yet where a majority in the Governing Council sees a need for action, we expect some ‘verbal intervention’ from President (Christine) Lagarde during the press conference, signalling the ECB’s willingness to ease policy further, should this be deemed necessary.”