U.S. Leading Economic Index rises slightly less than forecast in August

The Conference Board announced on Friday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 1.2 percent m-o-m in August to 106.5 (2016 = 100), following a revised 2.0 percent m-o-m advance in July (originally a 1.4 percent m-o-m gain).

Economists had forecast an increase of 1.3 percent m-o-m.

“While the US LEI increased again in August, the slowing pace of improvement suggests that this summer’s economic rebound may be losing steam heading into the final stretch of 2020,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the improvement, the LEI remains in recession territory, still 4.7 percent below its February level. Weakening in new orders for capital goods, residential construction, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions point to increasing downside risks to the economic recovery. Looking ahead to 2021, the LEI suggests that the US economy will start the new year under substantially weakened economic conditions.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. went up 0.6 percent m-o-m in August to 100.8, following a 1.2 percent m-o-m rise in July. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.6 percent m-o-m in August to 107.6, following a 0.6 percent m-o-m fall in July.