AUD/USD: Pre-US Elections target at 0.70 still intact after RBA prepares a dovish shift - Credit Suisse

FXStreet notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia decision on Tuesday, October 6 has reinforced the possibility of an easing announcement at the upcoming 3 November rate decision: with several speeches by RBA officials keeping policy expectations in focus between now and the decision, analysts at Credit Suisse see the pre-US elections AUD/USD 0.70 target as still intact.

“The fact that the RBA opted to wait at the 6 Oct meeting reduces to some extent the potential for AUD to trade idiosyncratically later in the year, as investor willingness to take directional views around the decision will be understandably curtailed by the coincident timing of one of the biggest risk events of the year. Nevertheless, in the weeks leading up to the election, we still see potential for RBA expectations to weigh on AUD, especially if the upcoming speeches were to focus more on the possibility of a more structured extension of QE purchases. As such, we remain focused on 0.70 as our tactical AUD/USD pre-election target.”

“The announcement of the 2020-21 budget by the Morrison administration is a less clear FX driver than the RBA decision, but on the margin is likely to be seen as a long-term positive in our view.”