PBOC’s weekend moves on RRR shouldn’t hit risk too much - ING

ING's strategists note that with US markets closed for the Columbus Day holiday, the focus in quieter conditions has been to assess whether the PBOC is trying to apply the brakes on the recent renminbi rally. 

"On Saturday the PBOC cut the risk reserves ratio for FX forwards to zero from 20% - effectively reversing a move put in place to protect the CNY when it was under pressure in August 2018 at the height of the US-China trade war."

"The PBOC also fixed USD/CNY slightly higher than model-based estimates suggested, a commonly used policy to suggest slight displeasure with the pace of renminbi gains."

"The moves saw USD/CNY gap higher and will take some of the steam out of the recent rallies in commodity currencies (Norway's krone, Aussie and Canadian dollars) in G10 and the Mexican peso and South African rand stand out in the Emerging Markets space."

"Whether this means that USD/CNY now consolidates above 6.70 into the US election (and ushers in broader dollar consolidation) remains to be seen, although a more positive interpretation could read the PBOC move merely as a further liberalisation measure? However, the lack of the CNY tailwind tends to favour consolidation, rather than a further dollar decline."

"DXY to trade a 92.90-93.60 range near term."