Eurozone: plummeting services PMI and retail sales last hurrah - ING

Bert Colijn, a Senior Economist at ING, suggests that the Eurozone's retail sales are bound to drop sharply in November after a 1.5% increase in October and the services PMI for November confirms this, falling from 46.9 to 41.7.

"Until October, retail was right in the sweet spot for consumer spending. With savings high thanks to the first lockdown and social distancing measures limiting spending on certain services, shopping for goods continued to be elevated. The October retail trade figures confirm that as sales were 3.1% higher than they were in February, before the pandemic hit the eurozone. This makes retail sales one of the few indicators that has experienced a true V-shaped recovery."

"Of course this will not last. November will clearly show a large decline in sales as countries like France and Belgium have closed non-essential retail. Less restrictive measures in other countries will still hamper sales, making October the peak ahead of the second wave decline in retail trade. The services PMI confirmed today that the decline in services activity is substantial. The reading of 41.7 in November corresponds to a significant drop in output. For overall eurozone GDP, we expect a decline of -2.5% in the fourth quarter."