USD: An important week for the dollar bear trend - ING

Chris Turner, the Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING, notes that the U.S. dollar bear trend has strengthened and broadened this week.

"In the G10 space, European currencies have broken to the upside (EUR/$ through 1.20 and USD/CHF below 0.90) and a stand-out for us has been USD/KRW trading sharply down through 1100 barely a week after the Bank of Korea Governor warned of herd-like behaviour and the implicit threat of intervention... This benign dollar decline is good for world growth, exporting as it does low US rates around the world and allowing the Rest of the World to run looser monetary policy."

"Propelling the dollar decline as well has been the fall in US real rates (nominal less inflation) where US 10-year inflation expectations, derived through index-linked US Treasuries, have pushed up to 1.87% - the highest since summer 2019. Policymakers can congratulate themselves here and progress on a smaller US fiscal stimulus – the $908bn plan seems to be gaining traction – can cement these trends."

"Given all this, we doubt today’s November NFP will have much bearing on the dollar. A good number, firms up recovery hopes, a bad number could prompt the Fed into fresh easing. DXY to work its way to 90 this month."