Germany's consumer confidence index fell slightly - GfK Group

According to the report from the GfK Group, consumer sentiment in November was significantly dampened by the partial lockdown. As was already the case in the previous month, both economic and income expectations as well as propensity to buy have declined. As a result, GfK has forecast a figure of -6.7 for December 2020, 3.5 points down from October this year (revised to -3.2 points).

A rapid increase in infection rates has prompted a second lockdown by the German government, albeit with less stringent restrictions than faced during the lockdown earlier this year. 

"Though stores will remain open, the renewed shutdown of the hotel, restaurant and events industry – as well as the already struggling tourism industry – has had a serious impact on the consumer climate," explains Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at GfK. "As a result, any hope we still had in early summer of a rapid recovery is now lost. Growing uncertainty has once again led to an increase in propensity to save, another factor which has contributed to the decline in the consumer climate."

The economic expectation indicator fell by 7.3 points to -0.2, it's lowest figure since May of this year when it stood at -10.4 points. Income expectations have suffered another setback in November in the wake of a declining economic outlook. The indicator lost 5.2 points, falling to 4.6 – a loss of 41 points when compared to the same period last year.  Propensity to buy has not been immune to falling economic and income expectations. The indicator dropped 6.5 points to 30.5 – a level which is still considered satisfactory when compared to the other two indicators. In addition, concerns over job losses as a result of a possible increase in the number of bankruptcies will also impact propensity to consume.