Brent crude oil: Bulls are back, average 2021 forecast raised to $55-60 - DBS Bank

FXStreet notes that Brent crude oil prices are currently close to $55/bbl, having started the year at $52/bbl. Suvro Sarkar, Industry Analyst at DBS Bank, revises up the average Brent Crude Oil price forecast for 2021 to $55-60/bbl and introduces the 2022 average Brent Crude Oil price forecast of $60-65/bbl. 

“Brent averaged around $43/bbl in 2020. We are likely to see a much better year for oil in 2021, as demand recovers (by around 6mmbbpd by our projections), while supply remains curtailed by OPEC+ production cut agreements (increasing by around 3.0mmbpd by our projections, less than the demand increase). While oil demand is still not expected to recover close to pre-covid levels in 2021; the pace of demand growth is nevertheless expected to outstrip the pace of supply growth in 2021, leading to inventory drawdowns and stronger oil prices overall.”

“With a stronger start to the year in our forecasts now, we thus raise our average 2021 Brent crude oil price forecast to$55-60/bbl. We also introduce 2022 average Brent crude oil forecast of$60-65/bbl on the assumption that air travel recovers closer to normal levels in 2022, OPEC+ discipline stays and US shale growth is contained under the new Biden administration.”