U.S. Leading Economic Index increases in line with forecasts in December

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.3 percent m-o-m in December to 109.5 (2016 = 100), following a revised 0.7 percent m-o-m gain in November (originally a 0.6 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast an increase of 0.3 percent m-o-m.

“The US LEI’s slowing pace of increase in December suggests that US economic growth continues to moderate in the first quarter of 2021. Improvements in the US LEI were very broad-based among the leading indicators, except for rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and a mixed consumer outlook on business and economic conditions,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the resurgence of COVID-19 and weak labor markets remain barriers to growth, The Conference Board expects the economy to expand by at least 2.0 percent (annual rate) in Q1 and then gain momentum throughout the year.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent m-o-m in December to 103.3, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m uptick in November. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in December to 107.6, the same pace as in November.