U.S. Leading Economic Index increases in line with forecasts in January

The Conference Board announced on Monday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. went up 0.5 percent m-o-m in January 2021 to 110.3 (2016 = 100), following a revised 0.4 percent m-o-m gain in December (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m rise).

Economists had forecast an increase of 0.4 percent m-o-m.

“While the pace of increase in the U.S. LEI has slowed since mid-2020, January’s gains were broad-based and suggest economic growth should improve gradually over the first half of 2021,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “As the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 accelerates, labor markets and overall growth are likely to continue improving through the rest of this year as well. The Conference Board now expects the U.S. economy to expand by 4.4 percent in 2021, after a 3.5 percent contraction in 2020.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent m-o-m in January to 103.3, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m uptick in December. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. fell 0.6 percent m-o-m in January to 106.2, following a 0.5 percent advance in December.