U.S.: Personal income surges and spending rebounds - TD Bank Financial Group

According to ActionForex, analysts at TD Bank Financial Group note personal income surged by 10% in January, while personal spending rose by 2.4%, and sugget another round of income support measures proposed in the American Rescue Plan combined with sizeable household savings should spur spending on activities put on hold during the pandemic.

"Personal income surged by 10% month-on-month in January, on par with market expectations. The strength was largely due to the increase in social benefits (+52.6% m/m), specifically, the stimulus checks and expanded unemployment insurance benefits from the relief act enacted at the end of 2020. Wages and salaries rose by 0.7% on the month. Proprietors’ income declined by 0.5% despite the renewed support of the Paycheck Protection Program’s second round."

"Personal spending rose by 2.4% m/m in January, a hair below the consensus call of 2.5%. Spending growth was led by goods, up 5.8%, with services up 0.7%. The increase in goods spending was broad-based with recreational goods and vehicles (notably, information processing equipment) driving the increasing. In services, gains were led by food services and accommodation, one of the most battered industries during the pandemic."

"The overall PCE price deflator rose by 0.3% in January, slowing down from an increase of 0.4% in December. Year-on-year the price index was up 1.5%. An important contributor to the increase was oil prices."

"After removing energy and food prices, the core PCE deflator remained flat at 0.3% m/m, but increased to 1.5% y/y (from 1.4% in December)."

"With solid growth in personal income and spending, concerns over inflation have reached a fever pitch. Today’s report hardly points to inflation spiraling out of control, but indicates ongoing recovery."

"The economic outlook is increasingly upbeat. Encouraged by the rollout of vaccines, consumers seem to be more confident in spending money than they were several months ago. As the economy continues to open up, another round of income support measures proposed in the American Rescue Plan combined with sizeable household savings should spur spending on activities put on hold during the pandemic, allowing the economic recovery to pick up considerable steam."