U.S.: Rise in claims last week not enough to reverse downward trend - Wells Fargo Securities

According to ActionForex, analysts at Wells Fargo Securities suggest that modest gain in initial claims for unemployment in the U.S. reflects some catch-up in filings after mid-month storms, and they expect that tomorrow’s payrolls report will show a pickup in job growth.

"The rise in initial jobless claims to 745K last week reflects some catch-up after winter storms delayed filings in the middle of February." 

"While the President’s Day holiday has also interjected some noise to recent weeks’ figures, the four-week average dropped to the lowest level since early December. In short, initial jobless claims are finally indicating that the jobs picture is beginning to firm up again after a rough winter."

"Other data suggest the jobs recovery has regained its footing. Job postings according to Indeed.com in February surpassed their pre-COVID baseline. The latest employment reading from the ISM services index gave back some ground in February, but still logged the second-highest reading since the pandemic began."

"With vaccinations hitting their stride and substantial fiscal support making its way through the economy, growing optimism around growth should help shift the jobs recovery into higher gear in the next few months. We look for payrolls to have increased by 210K in February, but expect a marked pickup in the spring and summer."