U.S. Leading Economic Index increases more than forecast in March

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. went up 1.3 percent m-o-m in March to 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a revised 0.1 percent m-o-m gain in February (originally a 0.2 percent m-o-m advance).

Economists had forecast an increase of 1.0 percent m-o-m.

“While the pace of increase in the U.S. LEI has slowed since mid-2020, January’s gains were broad-based “The U.S. LEI rose sharply in March, which more than offset February’s slightly negative revised figure,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The improvement in the U.S. LEI, with all ten components contributing positively, suggests economic momentum is increasing in the near term. The widespread gains among the leading indicators are supported by an accelerating vaccination campaign, gradual lifting of mobility restrictions, as well as current and expected fiscal stimulus. The recent trend in the U.S. LEI is consistent with the economy picking up in the coming months, and The Conference Board now projects year-over-year growth could reach 6.0 percent in 2021.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.6 percent m-o-m in March to 104.0, following a 0.1 percent m-o-m drop in February. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. fell 0.5 percent m-o-m in March to 105.1, following a 1.6 percent surge in February.