U.S. Leading Economic Index rises more than forecast in April

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 1.6 percent m-o-m in April to 113.3 (2016 = 100), following an unrevised 1.3 percent m-o-m gain in March.

Economists had forecast an increase of 1.4 percent m-o-m.

“With April’s large monthly gain to start the second quarter, the U.S. LEI has now recovered fully from its COVID-19 contraction - surpassing the index’s previous peak, reached at the very onset of the global pandemic in January 2020,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While employment and production have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels yet, the U.S. LEI suggests the economy’s upward trend should continue and growth may even accelerate in the near term. The Conference Board now forecasts real GDP could grow around 8 to 9 percent (annualized) in the second quarter, with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.4 percent for 2021.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. went up 0.3 percent m-o-m in April to 104.1, following a 0.9 percent m-o-m advance in March. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. climbed 1.8 percent m-o-m in April to 104.7, following a 3.7 percent drop in March.