Goldman sees oil hitting $80 despite likely return of Iran supply

Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs said it expects oil prices to climb to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, arguing that the market has underestimated a rebound in demand even with a possible resumption in Iranian supply.

"The case for higher oil prices therefore remains intact given the large vaccine-driven increase in demand in the face of inelastic supply," the bank said.

Even "aggressively assuming" a restart of Iranian exports in July, Brent prices would still reach the $80 mark by the fourth quarter, it said.

Goldman Sachs said a demand recovery in developed markets would offset a recent coronavirus-led hit to consumption and likely slower recovery in South Asia and Latin America.

Global demand could increase by 4.6 million barrels per day through year-end, with most of the gains likely in the next 3 months, it said.

The bank also expects the Organization of the Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, to offset any ramp-up in Iran production by halting for two months an increase in its output in the second half of 2021.

This would help offset the perceived bearish impact in the physical market of the release of Iranian floating storage, it said.