U.S. inflation is transitory but could become more persistent - ex-Fed official

CNBC reports that former New York Fed President William Dudley said that the recent spike in U.S. inflation is likely transitory for now — but it could become more persistent in the coming years.

“I think that the scare right now is probably going to abate a bit as we go through the next year, but I think in the long run, are we going to see inflation ... above 2%? I think the Fed is going to succeed in doing that,” Dudley said.

Inflation has been a major focus in recent weeks. Investors are worried that a quicker rise in consumer prices would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates earlier than expected. The U.S. consumer price index rose 4.2% in April from a year ago — the sharpest increase since September 2008.

Dudley said the latest spike in inflation was driven by factors that will resolve over time, such as disruptions in supply chains and a comparison against lower numbers last year as the economy was badly hit by the pandemic.

In addition, more people must gain employment before the U.S. faces a labor constraint that feeds through to inflation more persistently in the coming years, he added.

Still, Dudley said he thinks the Fed will discuss tapering its asset purchases — and start winding down its buying — by year end.