SECO Economic Forecasts: strong recovery following the easing of coronavirus measures

As expected, the easing of coronavirus measures has triggered a swift recovery in the domestic economy. 

The economic situation has also brightened internationally, with a dynamic recovery looking likely. 

Following the gradual easing in early March, the domestic economy has begun to recover rapidly, as predicted, after suffering significant setbacks in the winter half-year. 

Industrial production also rose considerably, buoyed by the strong resurgent demand from key trade partners. 

The indicators are pointing to further increases in both the industrial and the service sector. 

The Expert Group therefore expects Switzerland’s GDP to grow significantly in the second quarter of this year.

Provided that the planned easing of measures can be implemented as intended, the economic recovery is likely to become more widespread as time goes on. 

Overall, the Expert Group expects growth in GDP adjusted for sporting events of 3.6 % in 2021 (March forecast: +3.0 %). 

The Swiss economy would therefore grow at a significantly above-average rate by historical standards, meaning that GDP would climb well above the pre-crisis level in the second half of 2021. 

As a result, companies are predicted to increase their investments and expand their workforces. Short-time working is likely to be reduced gradually and unemployment should fall further. 

The unemployment rate is expected to come to an annual average of 3.1% for 2021 (March forecast: 3.3 %).

For 2022, the Expert Group is also forecasting an above-average growth in GDP adjusted for sporting events of 3.3 % (unchanged forecast).