U.S. Leading Economic Index rises in line with forecasts in May

The Conference Board announced on Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 1.3 percent m-o-m in May to 114.5 (2016 = 100), following a revised 1.3 percent m-o-m gain in April (originally a 1.6 percent m-o-m jump).

Economists had forecast an increase of 1.3 percent m-o-m.

“After another large improvement in May, the U.S. LEI now stands above its previous peak reached in January 2020 (112.0), suggesting that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” noted Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Strengths among the leading indicators were widespread, with initial claims for unemployment insurance making the largest positive contribution to the index; housing permits made this month’s only negative contribution. The Conference Board now forecasts real GDP growth in Q2 could reach 9 percent (annualized), with year-over-year economic growth reaching 6.6 percent for 2021.”

The report also revealed the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. went up 0.4 percent m-o-m in May to 105.1, following a 0.3 percent m-o-m gain in April. Meanwhile, its Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. fell 2.2 percent m-o-m in May to 103.0, following a 3.0 percent advance in April.