Investors may be ‘too optimistic’ about the oil market’s recovery - energy analyst

CNBC reports that according to energy analyst Vandana Hari, investors have high expectations for the global oil recovery because of the economic pick up in the U.S. — but those expectations could be “too optimistic”. 

“The U.S. rebound and the U.S. leaving behind all Covid restrictions almost … dramatically, starting in April and May, has taken the markets by surprise,” said Hari, founder and chief executive officer of Vanda Insights.

“But that has also set expectations on a slightly different, more optimistic path,” she told.

Multiple states in the U.S. have lifted Covid restrictions and a sense of normalcy has somewhat returned in the country.

“The U.S. macroeconomic indicators, the mobility indicators — are all going gangbusters,” she said.

Hari said the oil market appears to be using the U.S. as a model for what is going to unfold in the rest of the world.

“It may be too optimistic, but that’s what the market is factoring in,” she said.

Richer countries are leading the way when it comes to vaccinations and reopening, but Covid cases are still raging in many poorer nations that are unlikely to be able to follow the path of the U.S.

While she’s “constructive” about where oil prices may be headed, Hari said she was less of a “raging bull” than those calling for $80 in 2021 or even $100 oil in 2022.

Brent prices could stay close to where they are now — in the $70 to $75 range — at least for the summer months, she said.