Swiss franc shakes off intervention threat with its broad appeal

Bloomberg reports that the Swiss National Bank may say it, and valuation metrics may show it, but traders are unconvinced the franc has gotten too strong.

The haven currency’s surge to a nine-month high against the euro has brought its valuation back into focus among investors. Yet the central bank’s own data on real effective exchange rates show that the franc has shed most of its premium seen at the height of the pandemic.

Its potential for even more gains remains undiminished as traders say Switzerland’s persistently low inflation makes the franc a reliable store of value.

The central bank assessed the franc to be “highly valued” in June, and the currency has only strengthened 1.5% since then. It is also the most overvalued currency in the Group of 10, according to OECD’s model based on purchasing-power parity.

Still, investors have ignored those signals and piled in to the franc alongside the Japanese yen in recent weeks, seeking a refuge from fears the spread of the delta coronavirus variant could derail global growth. The plunge in bond yields from Treasuries to bunds has also boosted the currencies’ appeal.

All this raises the inevitable specter of central-bank intervention. Bouts of global risk aversion typically drive investors into the franc, and the SNB has battled a too-strong currency for more than a decade.