Growth in UK retail sales volumes decelerates steeply in September - CBI

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Friday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance plunged to +11 in the year to September from +60 in August. This was the lowest reading since March.

Economists had forecast the reading to drop to +35.

The report also revealed that retail sales volumes were expected to grow at a quicker rate next month (+29). Meanwhile, overall sales were seen as poor for the time of year in September (-11 from +26) and were expected to be broadly average for the time of year in October (-2). In other survey results, the retail orders balance increased at a slower pace in the year to September (+20 from +68 in August) and was seen to rise at a slightly faster pace in October (+24). Stock levels in relation to expected sales were seen as too low for the fifth consecutive month in September, albeit to a lesser extent than last month (-11 from -21), and were forecast to remain too low next month (-13).

“Demand cooled for retailers in the year to September after running red hot over the summer, pushing sales below seasonal norms for the first time since March. But volumes are expected to return to more typical levels for the time of year next month,” noted Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist. “Low stock adequacy remains a concern across the distribution sector. Respondents to our survey have told us that they do not expect the transport and production issues that are causing these shortages to ease significantly until at least next year and, in some cases, beyond.”