What a post-Merkel Germany could mean for Europe

CNBC reports that as Germany prepares for an overhaul in its political status quo, analysts are looking at what impact the next government could have on the European Union.

The Socialist Party, SPD, narrowly won the election, according to preliminary results, with 25.7% of support. It is now trying to form a coalition government with the Green party and the liberal FDP. 

The SPD’s candidate for chancellor is Olaf Scholz, the country’s current finance minister and vice chancellor.

“If Olaf Scholz becomes chancellor, he will be quite well-positioned, because he at least has the experience of a finance minister,” Daniela Schwarzer, executive director at Open Society Foundations, said about Scholz’s relationship with Europe.

Despite this, Schwarzer flagged that Scholz remains far less experienced than Merkel, who has played a fundamental role in European politics for decades.

Germany, as one of the founding nations of the EU, has long held a certain weight in European policymaking. During her time as chancellor, Merkel helped lead the bloc’s response to the global financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, migration crisis and, more recently, the coronavirus pandemic.

Beyond leadership style, there are open questions about what the new German chancellor will mean for deeper integration among the 19-euro economies.

“I think the ability of the German chancellor to act decisively — that’s going to be pretty constrained,” Robin Bew, managing director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.

This is because the coalition, once formed, will likely lean a little more toward EU integration than in the past. However, he stressed that a three-way coalition will also be harder to manage, given the wider range of opinions.