USD/CAD rises toward 1.2400 as USD strengthens on Powell’s remarks

• US dollar jumps across the board following Fed Chair Powell comments.
• USD/CAD rose to test the 1.2380 resistance area.

The USD/CAD climbed from 1.2350 to 1.2383, matching Thursday’s high. The pair remains near the high, with a strong bullish impulse. A break higher would clear the way for a test of 1.2400.

A stronger US dollar across the board has been the critical driver in USD/CAD. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that high inflation will likely last well into next year. He affirmed that it is the time to taper QE but not to raise rates. US stocks turned negative after Powell’s comments and commodities reversed sharply.

The USD/CAD faces a key barrier around 1.2400/10. If it breaks higher it could clear the way to more gains. Analysts at ING see the rally in CAD looking quite tired. “We expect to see more support in USD/CAD around the 1.2300 level. Most of the positives (BoC tightening, solid economic recovery, higher energy prices) appear in the price and our short-term fair value model currently shows a 1.5% undervaluation in USD/CAD.”

A key event next week will be the Bank of Canada meeting. At ING, they do expect the central bank to deliver another round of tapering “but that is a move that is likely fully priced in.” They see the balance of risks clearly tilted to the upside for USD/CAD next week. “August GDP data released two days after the BoC meeting may provide only a small help to CAD.”

Technical levels