Aussie Trade Balance surplus a positive for AUD

Australia Trade Balance for September arrived A$12.243b vs the estimated A$12.175b and vs the prior A$15.077b).

 - Australia exports (MoM) Sep -6% (est -3%; prev 4%).
 - Australia imports (MoM) Sep -2% (est 1%; prev -1%).

The data comes as a consequence of lower iron ore prices subduing exports (f/c -5%) and oil prices support for imports (f/c +0.5%). However, the Aussie can take some comfort that it was better than expected.

Meanwhile, final Retail Sales arrived -4.4% for the third quarter vs the expected 4.6% and prior 0.8% QoQ with sales down due to the coronavirus lockdown. Traders are in anticipation of a pick up in sales as the nation moves out of lockdown. 

About the Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.