USD/TRY battles 11.00 as bulls challenge five-day losing streak

• USD/TRY is flatlined around 11.00, as bears test bullish commitments.
• Erdogan said forex 'bubble' has burst and country heading for stable summer.
• 100-DMA is the last line of defense for USD/TRY bulls, RSI stays bearish.

USD/TRY is fluctuating between gains and losses around 11.00 so far this Monday, as traders see a sense of calm after an unprecedented Christmas week for the Turkish currency.

The lira corrected sharply from all-time highs in the previous week, falling for the five straight days, courtesy of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s new economic plan to rescue the beleaguered currency.

His recent comments expressed confidence that his country was on a path to stability and the foreign exchange "bubble" had been busted.

Markets also digest comments from the country’s Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati, as he conceded that the lira rally decimated small investors.

Holiday-thinned market conditions also leave USD/TRY ranging near recent multi-week lows of 10.24. Going forward, Turkey’s economic and political uncertainties could likely keep the lira’s recovery limited, with the greenback expected to hold firmer amid the Fed’s hawkishness.

Looking at USD/TRY’s technical chart, the spot is defending the critical 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) support at 10.11, which is the line in the sand for bulls.

Daily closing below the latter will put the 200-DMA of 9.27 at risk. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays bearish below the midline, suggesting that there is more room to the downside.

On the flip side, recapturing 50-DMA at 11.59 is critical for initiating any meaningful recovery towards the 21-DMA of 13.45.

USD/TRY: Daily chart