USD/TRY Price Analysis: 100-SMA, overbought RSI to test lira bears at $13.55

• USD/TRY refreshes weekly top, eases from intraday high at the latest.
• Clear break of 200-SMA, bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful.
• Fresh selling will wait for weekly support line break.

USD/TRY remains on the front foot for the fourth consecutive day, up 4.72% intraday despite a recent pullback to $13.28 ahead of Thursday’s European session.

In doing so, the Turkish lira (TRY) pair justifies the upside break of 200-SMA amid bullish MACD conditions, suggesting further advances of the quote. However, 100-SMA challenges the pair’s immediate upside at $13.55.

Although the USD/TRY prices are likely to ease before advancing further, the pullback moves will be worrisome if breaking the aforementioned weekly support line, near $12.40. That said, the 200-SMA level of $12.90 may restrict immediate declines.

In a case where the pair bears dominate past $12.40, the recently flashed multi-day low near $10.25 will be in focus.

Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the 100-SMA level of $13.55 will push the USD/TRY prices towards the $14.00 threshold and then to the December 21 swing high of $14.13.

Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of December 20-23 declines near $15.35 should lure the pair buyers.

Overall, USD/TRY remains in the recovery mode but intermediate pullbacks can’t be ruled out.

USD/TRY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Gradual recovery expected