USD/CAD rises past 1.2500 on softer oil prices ahead of Canada Retail Sales

• USD/CAD extends previous day’s rebound, refreshes intraday high.
• Oil prices drop for the second day amid sour sentiment, recently broke key support.
• Downbeat Canadian data, pre-Fed anxiety adds to the bullish bias.
• Canada Retail Sales for December eyed for fresh impulse, next week’s FOMC is the key.

USD/CAD takes the bids to refresh intraday high near 1.2530, up 0.10% daily during early Friday. In doing so, the Loonie pair cheers downbeat prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, amid risk-aversion.

The loonie pair previously cheered the US dollar’s rebound amid softer US Treasury yields, as well as a pullback in the oil prices from eight-year high. That said, the latest gains of the pair could be linked to the market’s fears ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The risk-aversion recently gained clues from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments during a CNBC interview. “Inflation rose by more than most economists, including me, expected and of course, it's our responsibility with the Fed to address that. And we will,” US Treasury Secretary Yellen.

In addition to the pre-Fed caution, mixed concerns over the US-China ties also weighed the market’s sentiment and the USD/JPY prices. That said, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) signaled that China’s Yang Jiechi and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan are up for a crunch meeting but no date was indicated.

Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields posted a second consecutive daily loss, down six basis points to 1.77% at the latest, whereas the S&P 500 Future dropped 0.45% intraday by the press time.

It’s worth noting that the mixed US data weighed on the US Treasury yields and allows the greenback to consolidate the recent gains on Thursday. The US Jobless Claims jumped to the highest since late October and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey details also improved for January. On the contrary, Canada’s ADP Employment Change slumped below 102.1K downwardly revised prior to 19.2K in December but Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change for November improved to -6.7% MoM versus -42.1% prior.

Looking forward, Canada Retail Sales for November, expected 1.2% versus 1.6% MoM, will be crucial for the USD/CAD prices amid a light calendar elsewhere. However, the pre-Fed notion and softer oil prices can keep the pair directed towards the north.

Read: Fed Preview: Three ways Powell could out-dove markets, dealing a blow to the dollar

Technical analysis

Although the 200-DMA level of 1.2500 puts a floor under the USD/CAD prices, recovery moves remain elusive until crossing the previous support line from November 19, around 1.2655.