Commodity prices to rally on raising tensions over Ukraine or tough sanctions against Russia – ING

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine grow, so does the risk that it spills over into global commodity markets. In the view of strategists at ING, Commodity prices could soar if the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates.

Tough sanctions would rattle commodity markets

“A scenario where the West fails to react with tough sanctions against Russia if it were to invade Ukraine means that the potential impact for commodity markets would be more limited, although the uncertainty would still likely be bullish in the short-term. There would still be a risk to Russian gas flows via Ukraine to Europe. While, depending on the scale of any invasion, it could also potentially have an impact on the production and export of Ukrainian agricultural commodities, including corn and wheat.”

“In a scenario where the West reacts strongly with sanctions that target key Russian industries, this could have a far-reaching impact on the commodities complex. It could potentially lead to a significant tightening in energy, metal, and agri markets, which would provide only a further boost to an asset class which already has an abundance of positive sentiment in it.”

“Even if sanctions are not imposed on certain industries, financial sanctions could still make trade difficult, as it would be an obstacle for making payments.”