GBP/USD retreats from the 100-DMA and gets back below 1.3500

• The British pound climbs in the North American session, 0.34%.
• The market sentiment is mixed as European stocks rise while US futures point towards a lower open.
• BoE’s 25 basis points rate hike is fully priced in by investors.
• The GBP/USD remains downward biased, as it failed to breach above the 100-DMA.

After ending January with losses of 0.65%, the British pound snaps three-day losses, climbing 0.31%. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.3495, though retreating from the 100-day moving average (DMA) lying at 1.3514. As depicted by European stock indices rising, the market sentiment is mixed, but US equity futures underpins the cash market towards a lower open.

Bank of England (BoE) expected to post back-to-back rate hikes

In the meantime, money market futures, as shown per the CME Group BOEWATCH tool, 100% of market participants expect an increase of 25 basis points, from 0.25% to 0.50%. Sources cited by CNBC said that “With the Bank Rate reaching 0.5%, we expect the MPC to confirm that all APF (asset purchase facility) reinvestments will cease following the February decision.”

Source: CME Group

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed President Harker crossed the wires. He commented that the Fed is not behind the curve, and he expects a rate hike of 25 basis points, four in the year. Concerning the balance sheet reduction, he said that the US central bank could begin the Quantitative Tightening (QT) once the Federal Funds Rates (FFR) hit 1% to 1.25%.

The UK economic docket featured the BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals for December. The former came at £0.8B in line with expectations, while the latter rose to 71.051K, higher than the 66K foreseen. Concerning the Market Manufacturing PMI Final for January, increased to 57.3, a tick more elevated than the 56.9 estimated, though trailed the previous month 57.9, showing some slowing, due to the Omicron hit.

Across the pond, Manufacturing PMI released by IHS Markit and the ISM for January will be closely watched by GBP/USD traders. That alongside the JOLTs Job Opening for December could shed some light, in anticipation of Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD is downward biased. During the European session, the pair retreated at the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.3514, but any downward moves might be capped by the 50-DMA lying at 1.3418. 

To the upside, the GBP/USD will face resistance at 1.3500, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.3514 and an eight-month-old downslope trendline around the 1.3530-40 region. On the flip side, the 50-DMA at 1.3418 is the first support level, followed by the 1.3400 figure, and then the YTD low at 1.3357.