Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe: End of QE doesn't mean cash-rate rise imminent

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe's speech on the economic outlook today to National Press Club is underway and can be followed and listened to live at this link. 

Lowe is speaking following yesterdays RBA interest rate decision and before the bank will release a full set of economic forecasts on Friday.

Key comments, so far

Jobs growth strong, Unemployment Low.

Weathered economic storm better than expected. 

Pandemic is not yet behind us. 

US inflation pick up adds uncertainty to the outlook. 

Optimistic about the country's prospects. 

End of QE doesn't mean cash-rate rise is imminent.

Prepared to be patient. 

Says achievement of our inflation, unemployment goals within sight.

Too early to conclude inflation is sustainably within target range.

"Over the course of this year" will be watching price pressures, consumption, wages.

Says board committed to full employment, prepared to be patient.

Don’t need to move in lock step with other central banks.

See significant uncertainties as to the persistence of recent price pressures.

Lowe says don’t want to see inflation too low or too high.

Lowe says will do what is necessary to maintain low and stable inflation.

Central forecast sees underlying inflation around 2.75% over this year and next.

Wage price index to rise 2.75% this year. 3% over 2023.

Sees unemployment falling to around 3.75% by end of year, staying there in 2023.

Business liaison suggests demand for labour remains strong.

Worst of disruptive economic effects from omicron now behind us.

Still expect GDP to grow in march quarter, although only modestly.

AUD/USD's reaction

So far the currency is stable at around 0.7139. 

RBA meeting, dovish but AUD rallies

Australia's central bank kept its cash rate at a record low of 0.1% on Tuesday and ended its A$275 billion ($194.40 billion) bond-buying campaign as expected, but pushed back hard on market wagers for an early rate rise.

The RBA emphasised that ceasing bond purchases did "not imply" a near-term increase in interest rates and the Board was still prepared to be patient. 

 "As the Board has stated previously, it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range," RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a brief statement.

"While inflation has picked up, it is too early to conclude that it is sustainably within the target band."

The Omicron outbreak has affected the economy, but it has not derailed the economic recovery," Lowe concluded. 

The dovish message sent the Aussie lower on the knee-jerk to 0.7033 though markets still think the RBA is behind the curve on inflation.

The Aussie has subsequently rallied into a critical resistance area on the charts as follows:

• AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears are waiting to pounce from key higher time frame resistance structures