USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee struggles below 75.00 during pre NFP anxiety

• USD/INR stays on road to first weekly loss in three, indecisive on the day.
• India CBIC expects heavy revenue loss due to fuel excise cut, New Delhi’s covid woes ease.
• Downbeat USD keeps sellers hopeful but firmer oil prices, yields favor bulls.
• US jobs report, risk catalysts are important for fresh impulse.

USD/INR remains sidelined around 74.70 after snapping a two-day rebound the previous day. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair struggles to justify mixed concerns at home and abroad during the cautious mood ahead of the key US employment data for January.

On the negative side, upbeat stock futures and the six-day downtrend of the US Dollar Index (DXY) keep USD/INR sellers hopeful. Also weighing on the pair prices are grim concerns over the US Nonfarm Payrolls due to the downbeat ADP Employment Change figures.

Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Win-win-win for the dollar? Low expectations, weak greenback point higher

Furthermore, recently improving covid conditions in India adds to the bearish bias for the USD/INR prices. As per the latest statistics, India reports 149,394 new covid cases versus 172,433 reported the previous day. On the same line could be the escalating concerns over the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate hike.

Alternatively, growing inflation fears across the board and recently hawkish central bank play underpin the US Treasury yields, which in turn challenge USD/INR sellers. Additionally, the multi-year high of oil prices and the Asian nation’s latest fuel excise cut keep USD/INR buyers hopeful.

Recently, the Chairman of India’s Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) said to NewsRise that the tax body estimates the government will lose about 600 billion rupees in annual revenue next fiscal year starting Apr. 1 following past excise duty cut on auto fuel.

Amid these plays, USD/INR traders await US jobs report while keeping the weekly loss intact. Also important to watch are the headlines over Russia-Ukraine tussles as the same propel oil prices of late.

Technical analysis

Although failures to cross the 75.00 threshold keep USD/INR sellers hopeful, an ascending support line from January 12 and the 200-DMA, respectively around 74.55 and 74.28, restricts the short-term downside of the Indian rupee pair. Adding to the upside filters is January’s swing high surrounding 75.35.