USD/JPY eases towards 115.00 as yields retreat from two-year high

• USD/JPY takes offers to refresh intraday low, snaps two-day run-up.
• US 10-year T-bond yields consolidate recently gains around the highest levels since January 2020.
• Japan mulls extension of activity restrictions in Tokyo and 12 prefectures during this week.
• Russia-Ukraine tussles, hawkish monetary policy concerns should be watched for near-term directions.

USD/JPY stands on slippery ground to refresh intraday low around 115.15 as Tokyo opens for Monday. In doing so, the yen pair snaps the previous two-day uptrend while reversing from a one-week high flashed on Friday.

While tracing the major catalysts, a pullback in the US Treasury yields joins the escalating covid fears in Japan and geopolitical concerns surrounding Russia.

The US 10-year Treasury yields pare gains from the highest level in 25 months flashed on Friday. That said, the benchmark bond coupon drops to 1.90% after rising to the 1.936% mark on the previous day, mainly because of the strong US jobs report.

As per the latest US employment data, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 467K versus the median forecast for a 150K rise and 510K revised prior while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in December, compared to expectations for a no-change figure. It’s worth noting, however, that the U6 Underemployment Rate extended the south-run to 7.1% from 7.3% previous readouts. Also encouraging was Average Hourly Earnings that jumped strongly to 5.7% versus 4.9%. 

It’s worth noting that chatters surrounding the Japanese government’s extension to the quasi emergency state in Tokyo and other 12 prefectures, due to the coronavirus spread, weigh on the risk appetite and the USD/JPY prices. Additionally, Russia-linked fears also exert downside pressure on the quote. Recently, US national security adviser said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be any day now.

Alternatively, hawkish comments from Fed policymakers hint at the further upside of the US Treasury yields, which in turn suggests USD/JPY run-up. On the same line could be the equity traders’ refrain to respect the hawkish US data on Friday, although the US stock futures and Asian equities print loss by the press time.

Considering these catalysts, USD/JPY may pare some of their latest gains but the hawkish Fed may keep them in command.

Technical analysis

Failures to cross a five-week-old resistance line, around 115.45 by the press time, direct USD/JPY sellers towards the 50-DMA retest, near 114.40 at the latest.